Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor Edition by Samhita adapa

Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor Edition by Samhita adapa

Awards Season, arguably the best season of them all, is way too far in the future. With 3 months till the Golden Globes and then another 5 till the Oscars in March, it’s incredibly early to start making any predictions at all for practically any award, especially with half the front-runners only having come out in festivals so far and not having a wide theatrical release yet. Despite this, I’m ready to make my predictions and am pretty excited about them. 

Best Actor this year is stacked and in my opinion, on the same level as last year. With The Odyssey being as much of a blockbuster as it was, Matt Damon was a given for an Oscars Best Actor nom. He’s practically a lock. I don’t think I’ve seen a list without him yet and it’s incredibly valid. Damon was amazing in the film and deserving of the nomination. Do I think he should win? That’s another story. In my opinion, I feel like it was expected from Matt Damon. He was great but I don’t think there was anything ground-breaking about the performance? I felt the same way about DiCaprio last year in One Battle After Another. It was a very good performance no doubt, but I kinda expected that. I didn’t come out of the film gushing about his acting like I thought I would. If he does win, I think that’s just due to The Odyssey’s momentum in general. 

There’s also a case to be made for Robert Aramayo, who won the BAFTA last year for portraying John Davidson in the biographical drama I Swear. However, this nom is a little bit more unstable and almost non-existent just because the film came out so long ago. Most of the winning films come out during Oscar Season in the fall but I Swear came out April 2026. 

Project Hail Mary, another film that came out in March, seems to have the same narrative for Gosling but I don’t think he’ll win for another reason. I can maybe see a nomination but a win is a long shot. Practically a Hail Mary. Probably a Golden Globe nomination and maybe a win, but definitely not an Oscar. I think it’s just the film in general that hurts his chances. It’s very good without a doubt but I don’t think it’ll get any noms in anything other than in technical awards. I feel the movie, at least for the Academy, is of the same genre as the Marvel films. It’s definitely going to get nominated, but I doubt the wins are going to come flooding in. 

And now to Digger, probably my favorite movie of the year. Discourse about the movie aside, even though I absolutely loved the film, Cruise was phenomenal. I couldn't see him in the role and that’s exactly the same way I felt after watching him in PTA’s Magnolia. He’s dramatic, funny, and just great overall. However the movie bombed pretty badly at the box office and that isn’t really a recipe for success. This significantly hurt its chances in all categories, not just Actor. The film was ambitious and took a huge ton of risks and for me, it worked though I understand why others may not like the film. Despite this, you can’t deny Cruise was incredible. His campaign seems to be running with the long overdue narrative and Iñárritu got DiCaprio his first win so a lot of people are banking on that for a Cruise oscar. I definitely think he’ll get nominated but a win is a little more shaky, no matter how badly I want it to happen. 

Despite the incredibly strong front runners, there are still a lot of films that have yet to come out and will probably yield just as incredible actors who are deserving of nominations. To name a few, Pedro Pascal in Behemoth! or Malkovich in Wild Horse Nine. Not to mention Andrew Scott in Elsinore. Then there are the international films, particularly the absolute unit of a film that in La Bola Negra is becoming in all the Oscar prediction forums online. The takeaway from all of this? It’s probably way too early to make predictions and go watch Digger! #DigorDie