Though Kalshi is primarily used for sports betting, users can gamble on a variety of things on the app, such as weather, legislation, elections, the box office, and even military conflicts. Polymarket does essentially the same thing as Kalshi, giving users the chance to profit off predictions in any field.
To me, these apps have never been that relevant. I’ve always heard about them in passing, maybe mentioned in a tweet or on Tiktok once in a while. But I think this February, when Iran’s Ayatollah was killed by an airstrike, a headline came out saying that “customers who bet on the death of Iran’s Ayatollah won’t get any of the $54 million wagered”(Somerland). That is when the full extent of the prediction market hit me. It wasn’t a couple bucks being bet on whether Timothee Chalamet finally wins an oscar this year(which actually had a pretty big prediction market in march), but more than 50 millions dollars being bet on a person’s death that will have huge political, social, and economical repercussions on the globe. There are people who treat this like a game and billionaires who are actively profiting off the death of thousands of humans. It makes you realize that there are actively people who are rooting for a person to die just to make a profit.
This also brings into question how is this even legal? How are markets like Kalshi able to exist? It all comes down to one word, once again proving how much power language has in general. In all of their advertisements, Kalshi uses the word “trade” instead of “bet”. The company says that instead of making an offer or wager on an outcome, you buy shares of the outcome of an event. For example, if you were to predict the weather tomorrow was sunny, you would buy a “yes” share. Every share on the app is priced under $1. So if the “yes” share is priced at $0.40, that means the prediction market is saying that there is a 40% chance of it being sunny tomorrow. And if you do end up being correct, you receive a dollar then you make a profit of $0.60(payout-initial investment). It basically works as a stock market, trading shares with other users, selling shares to other users when the value goes up or cashing out yourself(Petrella).
As for why it actually isn’t illegal, Kalshi is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CTFC) and registered with the Designated Contract Market (DCM), so technically, on paper, you are not gambling. This is basically stopping state laws from outlawing the app since federal trumps state. But no matter how many words you use to dodge the outcome, there is no denying the fact that this is gambling. Users are wagering money on a bet or game or outcome, the literal definition of gambling. What Kalshi essentially does is take advantage of legal loopholes to sustain itself and protect themselves from any lawsuits, though some states, like New York, are trying.
What also expedited the crisis was the number of celebrities promoting prediction markets as well as marketing targeted towards Gen Z in particular. Recently, Chalamet did a Kalshi advertisement, leading many people to call him a “sellout” and “soulless”(Reddit). In preparation for the 2026 Worldcup, Lionel Messi also promoted Kalshi along with his teammates(Cunnigham). Celebrities promoting betting isn’t new. Kevin Hart’s been promoting Draft Kings Sportsbooks for centuries now. But there is something about these predictions markets that are even scarier.
Kalshi also specifically targets younger adults as well. They use aggressive marketing, oftentimes following the latest trend or meme and trying to seem more culturally relevant. There is also a serious sense of FOMO regarding Kalshi. It’s seen as cool and if you aren’t on the app betting your money, then you’re missing out. Recently, Kalshi has been specifically targeting women as well, trying to expand beyond their primarily male audience. Odds are that if you scroll through Tiktok right now, you’ll eventually hit a Kalshi ad about a girl getting her boyfriend hooked on Love Island and making predictions on Kalshi. These advertisements are very similar to real Tiktoks, the only telling features being the paid promotion label at the bottom of the screen. They know that Love Island is insanely popular with women and is trying to appeal to them through that.
Though Kalshi very strictly makes sure no minors are gambling, sorry “trading”, they are still very resistant to the calls to ban people aged 18-21 from the app. Whereas many sportsbooks are 21+, Kalshi is only 18+. They are reluctant to push that bar higher because they know that younger people don’t have the self-restraint, wisdom, nor experience to control themselves(Cohen). They are the perfect consumer.
Prediction Markets are terrifying because you can literally bet on anything and everything on these apps. You can make money and lose money on something as stupid as the weather outside. You could lose all your savings just because Enola Holmes 3 didn’t hit #1 on Netflix’s top 10. The practice is predatory and absolutely should have major restrictions placed on it. And moral and ethical issues aside, there is a whole other can of worms to open regarding insider trading and the government’s role in all of this.
Works Cited
Cohen, Marshall, and Elisabeth Buchwald. “‘The Ads Got to Me’: College-Age Adults Are Rushing to Prediction Market Sites. Addiction Experts Are Alarmed.” CNN, 28 May 2026, https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/28/economy/prediction-markets-kalshi-young-adults. Accessed 13 July 2026.
Cunningham, Mary. “From Chalamet to Messi, Prediction Markets Are Betting on Celebrities to Boost Their Brands.” CBS News, 19 June 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/prediction-markets-celebrity-endorsements-kalshi-polymarket-messi/. Accessed 13 July 2026.
Petrella, Steven. “A Beginner’s Guide to Kalshi: A Lightly-Technical Explainer of Contracts & Pricing.” Action Network, The Action Network, 24 Jan. 2025, https://www.actionnetwork.com/education/how-to-bet-on-kalshi. Accessed 13 July 2026.
Sommerlad, Joe. “Kalshi Caught up in Firestorm of Controversy over Bets Placed on Death of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.” The Independent, 9 Mar. 2026, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kalshi-bets-iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-death-b2932018.html. Accessed 13 July 2026.
“Kalshi.” Kalshi.Com, 2026, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscaracto/oscar-for-best-actor/kxoscaracto-26. Accessed 13 July 2026.
“Reddit - the Heart of the Internet.” Reddit.Com, 2026, https://www.reddit.com/r/fauxmoi/comments/1u39m14/timoth%c3%a9e_chalamet_sells_out_stars_in_a_new_ad_for/. Accessed 13 July 2026.